If you’ve read AEB’s recent supply commentaries, this month may sound familiar.

The egg market continues to tell much the same story we’ve discussed for several months. Demand has been encouraging, particularly at retail, where sales continue to run ahead of last year. But supply remains more than enough to meet demand, and wholesale prices continue to reflect that reality.

Flock Size and Production

The layer flock edged lower over the past couple of months. Based on assessments collected through June, AEB estimates the flock between 336 million and 343 million layers, roughly 4 million birds below our previous estimate.

However, early indications from July suggest some producers affected by first quarter HPAI losses are coming back online. As those barns are repopulated and birds enter production, flock numbers could begin moving higher again in the months ahead.

One variable could slow flock size expansion: the breeder market.  Hatch numbers are down 12% year-to-date.  Cancellations are more common, though some producers are waiting to make last-minute decisions on pullet orders as a hedge given recent HPAI outbreaks.

From a production standpoint, AEB estimates an average of 19.9 million cases produced per month over the last three months, a slight reduction compared to the prior report.

Exports

Exports remain one of the more encouraging developments. July exports reached 320 million shell egg equivalents, the strongest monthly performance since 2023. From the April through July period, exports were up 413 million eggs compared with the same months in 2025. That meaningful growth is helping absorb some of the additional production available.

Beyond exports, most indicators we’ve been watching remain largely unchanged. Rate of lay and other leading indicators continue to point to a market that is adjusting gradually, not shifting dramatically in either direction.

Looking Ahead

The biggest question over the next several months is how much production returns from operations affected by HPAI earlier this year.  Some producers are already bringing birds back into production, which when fully repopulated, would possibly total 14 million birds; however, it is too early to know if these repopulations would offset the production decline we’ve reported above.

The broader picture remains unchanged. Demand is healthy, stronger than many would have expected given current market conditions. The challenge is that production capacity has grown substantially since mid-2025, and demand hasn’t grown fast enough to absorb that additional supply. That is why wholesale prices remain under pressure despite solid consumer demand.

AEB’s focus remains the same: continue building demand across retail, foodservice, industry, and export channels. Until supply and demand move back into better balance, that remains the clearest path toward improved market conditions.