In August demand continued to remain strong while supply continued to outpace demand. Wholesale prices remain depressed as a result and the outlook is unchanged from last month.

Flock Size and Production

AEB estimates the overall flock size between 340M and 345M, based on assessments through May and excluding small non-paying producers.  This estimate is higher than other published industry estimates.  Looking at total production, AEB estimates an average of 20.2M cases produced per month over the past three months.

Drivers of Total Production

Rate of lay has softened slightly, but 2026 production per hen is still projected to beat 2025, with 2027 projected higher. 

The number of egg-type chicks hatched has trended down through 2026 and are projected to be down 3% v. 2025, pointing to a possible near-term flock decline.  Despite this decline, the 2026 estimate is nearly 5% higher than 2024 and nearly 9% higher than 2023, this suggests even a slight decline would leave the flock above its historical average. Pullet companies are sending mixed signals regarding chick placements in 2026, suggesting some moderation in flock growth while remaining consistent with a historically elevated layer population.

Exports have grown throughout 2026 and continue to absorb part of the additional production. However, export demand alone will not fully offset elevated supplies.

Some producers appear to be taking a more aggressive approach to molting and flock rotation, based on anecdotal industry discussions, which could soften total production.

Future Expectations

Supply is expected to remain elevated through 2026 and into 2027, even accounting for a modest flock decline. Wholesale prices are expected to remain below normal levels.

Overall, AEB’s supply outlook remains unchanged. Egg supplies continue to outpace strong demand. Elevated flock numbers, strong hen productivity, and export activity that remains insufficient to fully absorb additional production continue to keep the market oversupplied. AEB continues to focus on innovative ways to grow demand across retail, foodservice, industry, and export channels to improve overall market conditions.