The July 2026 egg supply outlook remains largely unchanged.  Egg availability continues to outpace demand growth, keeping supplies ample and prices under pressure.

Flock Size

The U.S. flock size picture remains stable.  Based on assessment collections, AEB estimates the national laying flock held at 340M – 347M hens, including AEB’s estimate of non-remitting organic egg producers.  This estimate remains meaningfully higher than published industry reports suggest, indicating that overall egg production capacity continues to exceed commonly reported levels.

Drivers of Elevated Egg Production

As noted in prior analyses, elevated egg availability is being driven by more than flock size alone.  Multiple factors continue to support higher production levels across the industry:

  • Increased rate of lay: Farm operations continue to be more efficient, and hens are more productive than long-term averages.
  • Decreased export activity: Although exports have improved in 2026, volumes remain meaningfully below historical norms.

Combined with an expanded laying flock, these factors continue to increase the number of eggs available to the domestic market.  As a result, wholesale egg availability remains historically elevated.

Future Expectations

Based on conversations with industry experts, some producers are taking a more aggressive approach to flock rotations this summer.  While this could provide modest relief to production levels, it is unlikely to materially impact overall egg supply in the near term.

Signals from the breeder market point to a clear slowdown. Breeder activity has declined, a leading indicator for future pullet placements. This doesn’t signal a future reduction in flock size, but it does mean the growth trajectory won’t be as steep as it has been over the past year.

Industry conversations confirm this shift. Estimates vary on the size of the increase, but sources reports that chick cancellations are up. Together, these indicators point to real softening in breeder market activity, and we’re watching closely to determine how much this will temper future flock expansion.

Overall, the supply outlook remains unchanged.  Elevated flock numbers, strong hen productivity, and export activity that remains below historical levels continue to support abundant egg supplies.  Absent a significant change in one or more of these factors, egg availability is expected to remain elevated, reinforcing the importance of continuing to drive demand across retail, foodservice, industrial, and export channels.