Understanding Recent Declines in Wholesale Egg Prices

Mike Hostetler, VP, Insights and Analytics, American Egg Board

Wholesale egg prices fell sharply in January¹, and that’s raised a lot of questions across the industry. Most of those questions center on one simple idea: has demand weakened?

It’s a fair question. But when you step back and look at what’s actually happening in the market, supply remains the bigger driver of where prices are today.

Demand Is Holding, But It Isn’t Bailing the Market Out

Looking first at retail, demand has been strong and steady.² Eggs continue to check a lot of boxes for consumers. They’re nutritious, versatile, and one of the best values in protein³, especially in a cautious spending environment.

That said, retail demand hasn’t grown fast enough to keep up with the rapid increase in supply we’re seeing. From early August through the end of 2025, egg volume sales were on par with 2024—a particularly strong sales year. December sales dipped slightly year-over-year, though they still ran well above the three‑year average.² Consistent with seasonal sales trends annually, January started slowly, with declines versus 2025 for the first three weeks, but the month ended strong, presumably as consumers stocked their refrigerators in anticipation of massive winter storms. In other words, demand is quite healthy, but it isn’t growing at a pace that can readily absorb excess eggs.

Foodservice tells a similar story. Morning meal traffic grew 3% in Q4 2025, well ahead of total foodservice growth, according to Circana. Breakfast sandwiches led all major food categories in growth (measured by servings) in Q4 2025, and in December alone, egg servings in quick‑service restaurants were up 4% versus last year.⁴

So, demand is doing its job. Eggs are popular and consistent, and ongoing demand is providing stability. What it isn’t doing is offsetting the amount of supply that’s coming into the market.

Prices Have Rebounded Some, But Context Matters

Wholesale prices have firmed recently, but it’s important not to misinterpret that move. According to the USDA, national wholesale prices were $1.15/dozen as of January 30, 2026, after falling below $0.35 just a couple of weeks prior—the lowest levels seen in years.¹ That’s a meaningful improvement, but wholesale prices remain at historic lows—in cases lower than the cost of production.

Supply Is Still the Story

The larger issue continues to be supply. Several factors are working together here.

According to the USDA, the total table-egg flock stood at just under 309 million laying hens as of January 1.⁵ While USDA’s numbers provide a reliable representation of flock size, calculating the exact size of the national flock is not without challenges, and reported numbers do not constitute a census. Factor in smaller operations not surveyed by NASS and the growth of pullets coming into operations, and national production capacity may be significantly higher.

Moreover, an additional dynamic worth watching is the rapid growth in small egg farms. In 2025, 634 of the 749 new egg farm registrations came from operations with fewer than 50,000 hens.⁷ Small producers now outnumber large producers by more than three to one. This raises questions about whether all production is being fully captured in traditional flock estimates. That’s not a criticism of reporting systems. It’s simply a reflection of how the structure of the industry is changing.

Retailer behavior has also played a role. Promotions were less aggressive in December, with feature pricing averaging around $2.50 per dozen. At the same time, some retailers may have over‑bought eggs late in the year. That was likely a hedge against potential shortages, especially given how disruptive HPAI was at the end of the previous year. As a result, inventories entered the new year well above last year’s levels, reducing the need to restock.

There’s also a quieter factor at work: productivity. The industry’s rate of lay has been steadily improving for years. Today’s hens produce more eggs per bird than they did a decade ago. That means the industry can generate more eggs with fewer hens, and even modest flock growth can translate into meaningful increases in supply.

Lastly, there’s been industry chatter that some producers expanded capacity in 2025 and may be looking to fill those barns more aggressively. That’s anecdotal, but it aligns with broader expansion trends and is another reason supply bears close monitoring this year.

What Comes Next

Absent a major supply disruption, this imbalance is likely to persist through much of the year. Some projections suggest the laying flock could approach 320 million birds by mid‑year, the highest level since HPAI returned in 2022.⁸

That puts a spotlight back on demand. Not just sustaining it but growing it. That challenge becomes even more important after Easter when egg demand typically softens.

At the American Egg Board, driving demand is our core mission, especially in moments like this. We’re activating new programming in consumer marketing and communications, retail and foodservice outreach, innovation, exports, and influencer partnerships to reinforce the value of eggs, inspire new usage occasions, and keep eggs relevant with today’s consumers to accelerate demand in the near-term and for the long haul.

Sources

¹ USDA AMS Livestock & Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division. (2026, February 2) Egg Markets Overview Reports. https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/3725

² NielsenIQ Egg Category Trends Report. Total US xAOC + Conv. NielsenIQ.

³U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, February 2) Retail prices for beef, pork, poultry cuts, eggs, and dairy products [Data set]. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/meat-price-spreads

⁴ Circana. (2025). CREST dashboard (period ending December 31, 2025) [Data set]. Circana.

⁵ U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. (2026, January 20). Chickens and Eggs (Report). Economics, Statistics, and Market Information System. Retrieved 2 February, 2026 from https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/chickens-and-eggs

⁶WATTAgNet. (2026, January 27). FDA: Small egg producers lead industry expansion. WattAgNet. Retrieved 2 February, 2026 from https://www.wattagnet.com/egg/cage-free-laying-systems/article/15815727/fda-small-egg-producers-lead-industry-expansion

⁷ U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). (n.d.). Confirmations of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial and Backyard Flocks. Retrieved 2 February, 2026, from https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks

⁸ LEAP Market Analytics. (2026, January 21). Egg market summary and outlook [Industry report]. LEAP Market Analytics.